PTG Responds to CFTC's ANPRM on Prediction Markets
Apr 30, 2026
Today PTG submitted a letter to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission in response to the CFTC’s Advance Notice of Proposed Rulemaking on prediction markets. PTG’s letter supports a regulatory framework that protects market integrity while preserving the conditions needed for deep, competitive liquidity on U.S. venues, emphasizing that prediction markets can improve information aggregation, price discovery, and risk transfer when there is fair access to event-relevant information, neutral exchange governance, and clear settlement and dispute resolution processes.
PTG urges CFTC to address, as a threshold matter, how centrally traded and cleared swaps (including event contracts) are treated under the swap dealer de minimis threshold. PTG argues that applying the swap dealer framework—designed primarily for bilateral OTC swaps—to standardized, cleared products is disproportionate to the risks and could reduce U.S. liquidity provision, widen spreads, and push activity to foreign or less transparent venues.
PTG also recommends targeted safeguards for prediction markets: promote deep and competitive liquidity; require fair, non-discriminatory access to key real-time data (especially for sports-related contracts) with clear disclosure of sources and settlement rules; strongly limit and tightly control exchange-affiliated market making due to conflicts; require manipulation-resistant contract design grounded in objective, verifiable outcomes; and tailor surveillance and anti-abuse programs (including rules addressing trading on improperly obtained nonpublic information). Overall, PTG urges proportionate, risk-calibrated regulation that improves fairness and integrity without freezing innovation or driving activity offshore.